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Unread postPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 1:49 pm 
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StillValleyBard reminded me that the 2011 box office prediction thread could use a sequel for 2012. It's a little late but it's interesting to see how Pajiba.com's predictions for 2012 look at this late stage. Here's what the site predicted in January of this year - the wording is as if these grosses already happened :P (remember, this is the writing/forecast at that site - not mine!) : http://www.pajiba.com/seriously_random_ ... f-2012.php

10. Prometheus ($169 million) — You may be genuinely surprised to know that Prometheus was actually the first Alien movie to break $100 million. In fact, Alien 3 and Alien Resurrection only mustered $55 million and $47 million, respectively. No, Prometheus was not the best in the series (in fact, it was probably third), but is the first truly huge blockbuster.

9. The Bourne Legacy ($176 million) — The fact that Matt Damon didn’t return to the franchise hurt the box-office of Legacy, but the series still has plenty of fans. The fact that Jeremy Renner surprised many of us and kicked a fair amount of ass certainly helped it cross the $175 million mark.

8. Hunger Games: ($210 million) — Over $210 million may not sound like a lot for a movie that had so much hype coming in, but remember this: Hunger Games does not have as big a following as Harry Potter and Hunger Games opened in March (where it had the second highest March opening of all time). It was certainly enough to expand the fanbase and ensure a sequel.

7. MIB 3 ( $212 million) — What a sh*tshow. The level of incoherence was nothing short of astounding, and easily the worst movie of Will Smith’s career since Wild Wild West. Of course, it did well: Audiences love Will Smith, but the drubbing the movie took from critics, as well as departing moviegoers, was enough to ensure we probably won’t see MIB IV at least for another decade, long after the sour taste from the third installment has left our mouths.

6. The Avengers: ($260 million) — It didn’t scale the heights of the Iron Man franchise, but it beat out both Captain America and Thor, and amassed a tidy little sum for a series that has reached a certain level of fatigue. Joss Whedon brought a spark to it, but it still felt somewhat generic and with so many characters involved, it was muddled and overly complicated.

5. Brave ($302 million) — After a relatively pitiful showing in 2011 with Cars 2 ($191 million), the Pixar Brand bounced back with its third highest grossing movie of all time, and one of those films that will compete with Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, and The Incredibles in people’s minds as the best Pixar film to date.

4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part Two) ($316 million) — It’s over. That’s all that matters, people. It’s finally over. We will never have to speak of a Twilight film again.

3. The Hobbit (Part I) ($356 million) — The Hobbit performed about on par with Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings movies, and while the movie received overall solid reviews, some were displeased with the additions Jackson made to the original book, and I don’t think that Evangeline Lilly will ever live down her role.

2. The Amazing Spider-man ($368 million) — We all knew exactly what we were getting. There were very little surprises, but that’s why Hollywood continues to churn out these films. Audiences love the familiar. That said, Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone were surprisingly great in what was yet another generic origins story.

1. The Dark Knight Rises ($700 million) — Holy shitballs. Yes, it fell short of Avatar’s all-time record, but it did shatter every opening weekend record in the books, as well as becoming the fastest to reach $500 million. The increased prices, the addition of a lot of IMAX screenings, and the repeat business (because so many returned to decipher what Tom Hardy’s Bane was saying) certainly helped, but the third film in Nolan’s trilogy deserved every penny. That was one ballsy goddamn film, and one that may resonate for years to come. Can you believe that f*ckijng ending? My brain is still rattling.

------------- here are my thoughts:
Considering that we already know how some films did - Avengers will reach $600 million and Hunger Games $400 million - then these predictions above look a bit... strange. And, the 3rd Dark Knight film will get to $700 million..?! :yada: I also noted that there are only 10 top predictions this year (last year there were 15); could it be that they are starting to get cautious about their predictions..? (they should be).

EDIT: Pajiba also predicted the 10 biggest flops of 2012:
10. Dredd ($56 million) - 9. The Three Stooges ($33 million) - 8. Taken 2 ($67 million)

7. Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($43 million) - 6. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D) — ($21 million)

5. American Reunion ($56 million) - 4. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($21 million)

3. Total Recall ($67 million) - 2. John Carter ($49 million) - 1. Battleship ($72 million)

gotta admit - they called those last two pretty well...


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Unread postPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 8:41 pm 
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1, 2, and maybe 7 I'm only interested in seeing. American Reunion and Total Recall I will be seeing as well. I heard from a friend that American Reunion was really good. I guess this will finally be the last one, since it's been a flop. I've heard good things about it. Pretty much, if you're a fan of the original or the series, you'll probably like this one.


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Unread postPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:13 pm 
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Gonna have to see how Pajiba's predictions hold out.


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Unread postPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:02 pm 
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As I'm sure everyone here is aware, there was a mass murder a week ago at a theater in Aurora, Colorado which was showing The Dark Knight Rises. Most are of the opinion that this affected the opening weekend gross of the film - perhaps as many as 10% to 20% of the audience which intended to see the film on opening weekend may have changed their minds after the shooting in Colorado. The film's opening weekend gross ended up at about $161 million and most figured it should have grossed $180 - $190 million at a minimum before the shooting occurred. Will those who stayed away from theaters the past week now go to them or will it have an affect on the remaining grosses?

Even though this is a very early stage as we wait for the 2nd weekend grosses, it still seems all but certain that The Dark Knight Rises will gross over $400 million by the end of its run - unless something else happens. However, reaching $500 million total may be a stretch at this point; it's a bit behind the pace of the previous Dark Knight film. And, it will certainly not get anywhere close to the $700 million mentioned above.


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Unread postPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:01 am 
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Hey, you never know, with what ticket prices are these days. Plus I heard on the TV news people were actually scalping tickets to opening weekend for up to $300, so apparently, there's still a huge demand to see it. I'll either watch a bootleg or rent it.


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Unread postPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 11:20 am 
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Yes, I heard about the ticket scalping - that's why some thought that The Dark Knight Rises would break all records, even beating The Avengers. But, it didn't happen. Based on how it's starting its 2nd weekend (Friday yesterday), the film will end up with about $425-$450 million total domestic. To be sure, it will still be the 2nd or 3rd biggest film of the year 2012 - but because expectations were so high, many look on it as a letdown. :cry:

Right now, the three biggest films of the year 2012 are shaping up to be these:
1. The Avengers ($623m) ; 2. The Dark Knight Rises ($450m projected) ; 3. The Hunger Games ($408m)

A couple of other upcoming films to possibly challenge these are the final Twilight movie and The Hobbit.
But, I don't think either we'll reach those levels... more like $350 million probably.


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Unread postPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:03 pm 
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I guess it's time to see how Pajiba.com's predictions for 2012 look compared to what actually happened at the box office: http://www.pajiba.com/seriously_random_ ... f-2012.php

10. Prometheus predicted: $169 million :~} Actual: $126.5 million

9. The Bourne Legacy predicted: $176 million :~} Actual: $113 million

8. Hunger Games: predicted: $210 million :P Actual: $408 million

7. MIB 3 predicted: $212 million :~} Actual: $179 million

6. The Avengers: predicted: $260 million :ROTF: Actual: $623 million

5. Brave predicted: $302 million :~} Actual: $237 million

4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part Two) predicted: $316 million :clap: projected: $295 million

3. The Hobbit (Part I) predicted: $356 million :? projected: $300 million

2. The Amazing Spider-man predicted: $368 million :roll: Actual: $262 million

1. The Dark Knight Rises predicted: $700 million :ROTF: Actual: $448 million

The predicted 10 biggest flops of 2012:

10. Dredd predicted: $56 million :roll: Actual: $13.4 million (now that's a flop!)
9. The Three Stooges predicted: $33 million :clap: Actual: $44 million
8. Taken 2 predicted: $67 million :P Actual: $140 million
7. Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance predicted: $43 million :clap: Actual: $52 million
6. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D) predicted: $21 million :P Actual: $43.5 million
5. American Reunion predicted: $56 million :bow: Actual: $57 million
4. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter predicted: $21 million :P Actual: $37.5 million
3. Total Recall predicted: $67 million :clap: Actual: $59 million
2. John Carter predicted: $49 million :P Actual: $73 million
1. Battleship predicted: $72 million :clap: Actual: $65 million

Out of the 20 total films, they nailed one - American Reunion. Could've been worse, I suppose... ;)


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Unread postPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:57 am 
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Thanks Kaptain for sharing this. Are you looking forward to the next Star Trek Movie?

Zone Peace and Prosper

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Unread postPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:18 am 
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I cant believe that many people went to go see The Phantom Menace. Did you forget how awful it was the first time?
I admit I saw the ORIGINAL remastered versions in theatres back in 1997 for IV, V, and VI. But that was enough for me. I dont fall for the "new versions" crap anymore.


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Unread postPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:42 am 
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Mr.Z wrote:
Thanks Kaptain for sharing this. Are you looking forward to the next Star Trek Movie?

Strangely enough, I am. I'm usually not a fan of remakes, sequels and any of the repetitive stuff that Hollywood puts out nowadays, but this one (Star Trek-Into Darkness) has me intrigued for some reason. There's a lot of secrecy to the plot, but it looks like they'll utilize a version of a character, Gary Mitchell, who first appeared way back in the original series Trek pilot episode (1966), and use him as the main villain. If so, it may match or surpass the thrills offered in the 2009 Trek restart movie.


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Unread postPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:50 am 
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StillValleyBard wrote:
I cant believe that many people went to go see The Phantom Menace. Did you forget how awful it was the first time?
I admit I saw the ORIGINAL remastered versions in theatres back in 1997 for IV, V, and VI. But that was enough for me. I dont fall for the "new versions" crap anymore.

I guess the 3D was enough of an innovation to draw in a few million diehard Star Wars fans. Lucas has taken the whole concept of re-releasing popular films to a new level - a kind of overkill. I mean, how many versions of the same film can he put out there, know what I mean..? I think the 3D versions of the other two prequel Star Wars films are on their way... :(

PS: I also went to see the 1997 versions in the theater, and the prequels (1999-2005). But, that was it for me.


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Unread postPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:40 pm 
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Kaptain Kirk wrote:
Mr.Z wrote:
Thanks Kaptain for sharing this. Are you looking forward to the next Star Trek Movie?

Strangely enough, I am. I'm usually not a fan of remakes, sequels and any of the repetitive stuff that Hollywood puts out nowadays, but this one (Star Trek-Into Darkness) has me intrigued for some reason. There's a lot of secrecy to the plot, but it looks like they'll utilize a version of a character, Gary Mitchell, who first appeared way back in the original series Trek pilot episode (1966), and use him as the main villain. If so, it may match or surpass the thrills offered in the 2009 Trek restart movie.


I am a huge Trek fan too, this sounds interesting, :D

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Unread postPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 pm 
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Kaptain Kirk wrote:
StillValleyBard wrote:
I cant believe that many people went to go see The Phantom Menace. Did you forget how awful it was the first time?
I admit I saw the ORIGINAL remastered versions in theatres back in 1997 for IV, V, and VI. But that was enough for me. I dont fall for the "new versions" crap anymore.

I guess the 3D was enough of an innovation to draw in a few million diehard Star Wars fans. Lucas has taken the whole concept of re-releasing popular films to a new level - a kind of overkill. I mean, how many versions of the same film can he put out there, know what I mean..? I think the 3D versions of the other two prequel Star Wars films are on their way... :(

PS: I also went to see the 1997 versions in the theater, and the prequels (1999-2005). But, that was it for me.


So no Disney owned Star Wars sequels will be seen by you guys?


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Unread postPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:09 am 
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Anthony wrote:
So no Disney owned Star Wars sequels will be seen by you guys?


If they're no better than The Phantom Menace, maybe not, but I was speaking more about seeing the already-existing films again in theaters. Lucas suckered me in in 1997, but I couldn't resist the chance to see the first Star Wars (77) again in a theater and was curious about the 'upgrades.' I actually don't remember if I went to see the 'new' versions of The Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi in 1997 - but I definitely saw A New Hope in '97 - it's my favorite of the bunch. But, seeing The Phantom Menace in the theater again was never an option for me. And, I won't see the 3D versions of Attack of the Clones or Revenge of the Sith - just no point for me. (if I had to pick, Revenge of the Sith would be my choice, but I won't actually go).

The new Disney Star Wars films - I probably would see these; I'm surprised it took so long for Chapter VII to finally get to the screen -- Lucas could have made a few billion with 3 new films of chapters 7, 8 and 9 I think, in the nineties; maybe he just didn't have any ideas for these and he spent his energy on simply reworking his old films and doing the prequels, which had their stories already pretty much set up. But, the new chapters seem so far off (2015?) right now that it's hard to say what my thinking on this will be by then.


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Unread postPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:49 am 
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I heard Lucas said something along the lines of: the technology was not there yet for his prequels, I do not believe him if that is what he said.

I am a fan of the 3 original movies , ANH, ESB and ROTJ, I think these are classics, the redos were not needed imho. I only saw Phantom Menace,
I did not care for it at all, yet alot of the newer generation liked it and the other movies that came after. I do not plan to see the Disney movies.

I am still waiting for the new Star Trek movie, and hope for a New Twilight Zone movie.

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